Former president Rodrigo Duterte, former senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, and ACT-CIS Partylist Rep. Erwin Tulfo topped the senatorial survey conducted by Oculum Research and Analytics in the first quarter of 2024.
Duterte (53%), Sotto (53%), and Tulfo (52%) tied for first to third places given the poll’s margin of error, and also obtained high awareness ratings ahead of the 2025 senatorial race.
Oculum polled 3,000 respondents for the nationwide survey conducted from Feb. 21-29, 2024. Respondents were aided with a list that contained 44 names of likely 2025 senatorial bets.
Trailing the top three were former Manila mayor Isko Moreno (45%), former senator Manny Pacquiao (43%), and Senators Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa (41%) and Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go (40%).
Doctor-vlogger Willie Ong, Sen. Imee Marcos, Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto, and Sen. Pia Cayetano each got 35% support, good for eighth to 11th places. Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr. (32%), former senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson (32%), and Sen. Lito Lapid (30%) figured within the 12th to 14th spots.
“Candidates like Duterte, Sotto, Tulfo, Moreno, and Pacquiao exhibit both high awareness (above 89%) and a strong voting preference (above 43%). This correlation suggests that their public visibility positively influences their electoral appeal,” said Dr. Joseph Mercado, Oculum chief statistician.
“Candidates such as Leni Robredo, Gregorio Honasan, Manuel Roxas III, and Kiko Pangilinan, despite having high awareness levels (above 87%), have significantly lower voting preferences (below 23%). This indicates that while these candidates are well-known, their popularity does not necessarily translate into electoral support,” he added.
“The Oculum survey underscores the importance of public visibility and perceived competence in influencing voter preferences for senatorial candidates. High awareness often correlates with higher voting preference, but this is not universally the case, as seen with some well-known candidates with lower voting intent percentages,” Mercado said.
“The data also highlights the dynamic nature of voter preference, which many factors, including political campaigns, current events, and the evolving public perception of candidates, can influence,” he said.
The Oculum 2024 first-quarter national survey was conducted from February 21 to 29, 2024. A total of 3,000 respondents, aged 18 years old and above, were interviewed face-to-face. The respondents were distributed as follows: 335 from the National Capital Region, 645 from Northern and Central Luzon, 690 from Southern Luzon, 615 from the Visayas and 715 Mindanao, ensuring representation. With a margin of error of ± 2 percentage points and a high confidence level of 97%, Oculum’s survey presents a reliable and in-depth perspective of the current state of public opinion in the Philippines. OCULUM RESEARCH AND ANALYTICS
Source: Oculum Research and Analytics Q1 2024 Survey, Feb. 21-29, 2024
Q.: If there is an election today for senators, who are the 12 potential candidates that you will vote for? Encircle. (Kung may halalan sa araw na ito para sa mga senador, sino ang 12 na maaaring tumakbo ang iboboto mo? Bilugan.)
Graphic composed of photos sourced from the Facebook pages of former senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto, representative Erwin Tulfo and the website of the Presidential Communications Office.