Expressing the 33-point lead as “33%” understates the survey lead – Marcos’s lead is actually more than double Robredo’s support.
Claim: Marcos obtained a 33% lead in the April 16-21 Pulse Asia survey
Rating: FALSE
FACT-CHECK | Percentage points, not percent: Marcos lead in Pulse Asia survey is not 33%
Marcos spokesman Vic Rodriguez wrongly used a percentage in describing the lead of presidential bet Ferdinand Marcos Jr. over Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo in the latest Pulse Asia survey.
Marcos got 56% support in the April 16-21 survey, while Robredo obtained 23%. Rodriguez got the simple difference and titled his press statement “On the 33% lead in the latest Pulse Asia survey a week before elections.”
This is inaccurate. The difference between two percentages is expressed in terms of percentage points (see this guide). This is cumbersome but accurate. So in the latest Pulse survey, Marcos had a 33-percentage point or 33-point lead over Robredo.
Expressing the 33-point lead as “33%” understates the survey lead – Marcos’s lead is actually more than double Robredo’s support.
There is a lot of ground to cover in terms of survey literacy. But the most important one is to treat surveys as a guide and not necessarily an accurate or fool-proof predictor of election results.
Surveys are only a snapshot of people’s preferences over the period it was conducted, and a lot can still happen between now and election day.
PressOne.PH is part of #FactsFirstPH which brings together various sectors that are committed to promoting truth in the public space, and exacting accountability on those who harm it with lies. For those interested to join the initiative, email info@factsfirst.ph
PressOne.PH has adopted Facebook’s ratings options for third-party fact checkers and is working toward accreditation with the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN).
FACT-CHECK: EDCA is not unconstitutional
: A manifesto shared by a pro-China personality falsely claimed that the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Philippines and the United States is banned under the constitution.
FACT-CHECK: Taylor Swift did not make any comment about US ability to stop war in Taiwan
An X user made the false claim that Taylor Swift had commented about the United States’ naval capability to deter an invasion of Taiwan.
FACT-CHECK: Facebook post uses wrong painting to depict first Mass in PH
A Facebook post used the wrong painting to depict what it described as the first Mass in the Philippines.