Besieged at home after the Democrat-led House of Representatives filed two articles of impeachment last week, US President Donald J. Trump faces a tougher problem abroad.
America’s commitment to help allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region stand up against China’s hegemonic ambitions has been placed in serious doubt, after Trump snubbed and skipped the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Leaders’ Summit in Bangkok last month, sending his National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien instead.
Since coming to office in November 2016, Washington’s friends saw a dramatic shift in its foreign policy, withdrawing from foreign engagements and focusing on protecting its borders. Trump has withdrawn troops from the Middle East, built walls along its borders in Mexico and started crippling trade wars with friends and rivals.
However, the situation in the Asia and Pacific region is much different from those of Europe and the Middle East. For instance, Southeast Asian countries were confused after Washington suddenly introduced the free and open Indo-Pacific Strategy, a security and economic mechanism to counter Beijing’s creeping influence in the region.
Southeast Asia found the strategy vague and ambiguous. While Pentagon boss Mark Esper declared the Indo-Pacific the US’ primary theater of operations, identifying China as a threat to international order due to its economic power along with Russia’s aggressive behavior, Trump’s policies were seen growing ever inward. There is a disconnect somewhere.
In mid-November, Esper embarked on a second Indo-Pacific tour to emphasize the importance of alliance and partnerships, but many countries remembered Trump’s insult when he did not show up in Bangkok weeks earlier.
Since 2016, Trump has attended the Asean Summit only once – in 2017 in Manila. Vice President Mike Pence represented him in 2018 in Singapore. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was the highest-ranking American official in Bangkok in 2019.
The response from Southeast Asian leaders was quick. They downgraded the summit with the United States to a “troika,” showing their own displeasure. Only three leaders showed up in the meeting with O’Brien.
They were Thailand’s Prayuth Chan-ocha of the host of this year’s Asean Summit, Nguyen Xuan Phuc of Vietnam who will be next year’s host, and Lao Thongloun Sisoulith, the country coordinator of the US-Asean dialogue.
The seven other countries were represented by their foreign ministers, including Teodoro Locsin Jr. President Rodrigo Duterte opted to skip the meeting. To recall, Duterte avoided Barack Obama in his first Asean Summit appearance in Laos in 2016.
During the Bangkok meeting, O’Brien read a letter from Trump inviting leaders of the 10 Southeast Asian countries to a “special US-Asean summit” in the first quarter of 2020 in the continental United States. The letter asked Asean leaders to join Trump to discuss ways to “broaden and deepen our cooperation on matters of great importance.”
Now, it will be interesting to see if Southeast Asian leaders are excited to see Trump in California, in Washington or anywhere in US territory when the US leader himself has shown very little interest in the region.
China was able to fill in the vacuum when the United States decided to retreat after Trump assumed office in 2016. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has expanded its reach after Duterte came to power a few months before the Republican leader was elected into office.
It now appears that more countries in Southeast Asia are falling into China’s orbit. Cambodia and Laos, which have been getting a lot of economic assistance, are good friends of China. Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand also have excellent relations with Beijing. Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam appear to be less friendly with China.
Hanoi and Beijing are both led by the communist party, but they are at odds over South China Sea. Historically, the two countries had fought each other in the past. They continue to duel in the disputed waters.
Thus, some Southeast Asian leaders are not really eager to meet Trump next year. Not Hun Sen of Cambodia and definitely, not Rodrigo Duterte who has not gone to any Western country since 2016. He has been to Beijing five times and Moscow twice, and in neighboring states, including Japan, South Korea, India and some Middle East countries.
Perhaps, Duterte hates the idea of coming to America because he does not want the country to appear like a vassal of United States, its colonizer for half a century.
The other countries may feel the same way if they appear excited to see Trump, who does not care even care about them. And what could the United States offer Southeast Asian states?
The US appears reluctant to carry on its shoulder the security of the region. It is only willing to share the burden, asking allies and partners to contribute to the defense of the region. Japan is footing much of the bill and other countries can barely stand on their own.
The impeachment case against Trump may also work against the planned meeting with Southeast Asian leaders. Trump would probably be tied up defending himself during the first two quarters of 2020. In case he comes out victorious in his political battle, he will be busy in the second half of next year trying to win re-election.
In fact, his aides had said he skipped the Asean Summit this year because he was tied up with the campaign in some important vote-rich states. His vice president is equally busy with the pre-election campaign. So, it will no longer be a surprise if Trump will have no more time for Asean leaders who do not matter in US politics.
But that would be a mistake. The US must pay attention to Southeast Asia, the fastest-growing region in the world. The region’s 600 million combined population continues to grow, fueling more demand for consumption of luxury goods and agricultural products.
By next year, Asean will launch one of the world’s biggest free trade area with the China-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. It will include Japan, South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand but excludes the United States, Europe and Brazil.
The United States needs Asean. Asean does not need the United States. The biggest snub will not be Donald Trump’s non-appearance in the Bangkok Summit last month but the Asean boycott of Donald Trump’s invitation to go see him in the United States next year.