By Christian V. Esguerra
What used to be the largest Muslim rebel group in the Philippines participated in its very first election on May 9, fielding candidates in key electoral battles in the newly created autonomous Bangsamoro region in the country’s south.
The United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), formed in 2014 shortly after the rebels’ landmark peace agreement with the government, scored a major victory in Cotabato City, unseating its feisty incumbent mayor and capturing majority of the city council’s seats.
But just as significant as this triumph was the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s defeat in the province of Maguindanao, its so-called political bailiwick.
Its gubernatorial candidate, Esmael “Toto” Mangudadatu, was defeated by incumbent Gov. Bai Mariam Sangki-Mangudadatu. Former congresswoman Bai Sandra Sema, the UBJP’s candidate for vice governor, also lost to Sangki-Mangudadatu’s runningmate.
“Malaking win na sa ‘tin yun na alam natin na kaya na talaga ng MILF na mag-participate dun sa democratic process, hindi lang dun sa giyera na dating ginagawa nila in the last 40, 50 years,” said Naguib Sinarimbo, the party’s secretary general and the regional government’s interior minister.
Fielding its own local candidates during the crucial transition period also allowed the MILF to determine if it could “tolerate the outcomes of elections,” he added.
But actual participation by the region’s temporary leaders also came with political risks for the MILF, which, by law, heads the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA).
The MILF-led interim government was supposed to end its term this year. But the MILF successfully lobbied Congress and outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte to extend it by three years, a transition period more consistent with the group’s initial demand during the formal peace negotiations.
This meant postponing what should have been the very first parliamentary elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) last May 9, to 2025.
In the meantime, the MILF sought to capture local seats, and, in the process, get rid of the likes of Cotabato City Mayor Cynthia Guiani-Sayadi, who had campaigned hard against her city’s inclusion in the BARMM.
NO POPULAR MANDATE
Governing the new region for another three years without the benefit of a popular mandate earned through an election victory can pose problems for the MILF, said Francisco Lara Jr., a senior policy adviser to the peacebuilding group, International Alert.
As things stand, the MILF is hard-pressed to fulfill its end of the political bargain by instituting systemic and structural reforms in a region beset by armed conflict and chronic poverty for decades. Part of the challenge is to get stakeholders together — including political clans and power brokers — behind a common political and economic agenda spelled out in the legislated political settlement.
This will require wide support, which naturally emanates from a popular mandate.
“Nagdulot ng mas malaking problema para sa MILF itong kasalukuyang halalan sapagkat hindi nila isinalang yung sarili nila mismo,” said Lara.
“Mas lalong nasa panganib ngayon yung peace agreement sa aking pagtingin at lalong nasa panganib ngayon yung pamununo nila sa regional government sapagkat hi di nga nagkaroon ng halalan,” he added, noting the MILF’s party would have won the first parliamentary elections had they taken place.
Sinarimbo insisted that his group’s continuing mandate clearly emanates from the 2014 peace agreement, a deal that sought to end decades of violence by carving a new region for the Bangsamoro.
“Tama lang yung phasing natin na yung MILF, in its transition, participated in a local election in 2022 so that it can test the grounds kung ready na ba ito at prepared na ba ito to abandon yung armed struggle and then toward a democratic process,” he said.
By signing the peace deal with the Aquino administration, the MILF and its thousands of combatants committed to a carefully planned peace process, which includes decommissioning.
At least 19,000 MILF troops are said to have gone through the decommissioning process since 2015, with another 14,000 set to take part as well this year. Under the peace deal, combatants will each receive a P100,000 cash assistance and a socioeconomic package to help them transition to civilian life.
‘LOCAL PARTISANS’
The postponement of the BARMM parliamentary elections also had to do with preparedness, said Sinarimbo, who cited the absence of an electoral code for the region.
It’s one of the priority legislations that were supposed to be completed during the original three-year transition. The BTA has so far completed the administrative and the education codes.
“Ang problema sa elections in 2022, both the national government and the MILF were not prepared for it,” Sinarimbo said.
Having secured leadership of the BARMM, at least, until 2025, the MILF will also have to deal with what Sinarimbo referred to as “local partisans,” who would attempt to “capture, not only local elective positions, but also the regional government.”
“We will continue to fight that, not because we do not want them to hold the reins of power at the regional level, but more importantly, because the regional government and the institutions created (are) a result of a peace agreement,” he said.
Under the Bangsamoro Organic Law, the regional parliament will have 80 seats, one of which will be occupied by representatives of political parties elected through a system of proportional representation.
Up to 40 percent of the remaining seats will be composed of elected members from parliamentary districts. At least 10 percent of the seats are reserved for representative of sectors such as non-Moro indigenous peoples.
In the meantime, members of parliament were appointed by President Rodrigo Duterte, with MILF nominating the majority. The law extending the BTA provided an opening for incoming President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pick the new regional officials.
Sinarimbo said the regional seats should be “protected from partisan interests” until the regular regional government was established in 2025.
“We cannot allow local interests to hijack yung process na nag-invest tayong lahat,” he said.
“It is important that everyone secure the gains of the peace agreement and bring it to an appropriate conclusion.”
But how to arrive at a just and appropriate conclusion will require dialogue and cohesion in the Bangsamoro where dividends of peace will be felt by all stakeholders. The divisive local elections has shown that attaining inclusive peace remains a key challenge for the peace process.