The Philippines may see a decline in its Covid-19 cases by the end of October, and even return to pre-Delta surge numbers, the OCTA Research Team said on Thursday.

OCTA fellow Prof. Guido David noted a decrease in the seven-day average of new cases in the country.

“Current seven-day average in PH is 6,416 and 1,156 in the NCR (National Capital Region). Reproduction number in PH is 0.55 and 0.47 in the NCR,” he said.

David said the seven-day average was the lowest since July.

“Based on current trends, the country is tracking at less than 5,000 new cases (seven-day average) by end-October with less than 1,000 in the NCR. This means we expect numbers to return to pre-Delta surge level by end-October,” David said.

The first case of the Delta variant, which is highly transmissible, was recorded in the Philippines in July.

The Philippines is piloting the alert level system in Metro Manila, which may soon replace the community quarantines the country has been imposing to curb the spread of Covid-19 since last year.

As of Oct. 21, the Philippines has recorded over 2.74 million Covid-19 cases, of which 65,835 were active.

The Philippines has more than 24 million fully vaccinated individuals, or over 31 percent of its target population. John Ezekiel J. Hirro