Expressing the 33-point lead as “33%” understates the survey lead – Marcos’s lead is actually more than double Robredo’s support.
Claim: Marcos obtained a 33% lead in the April 16-21 Pulse Asia survey
Rating: FALSE
FACT-CHECK | Percentage points, not percent: Marcos lead in Pulse Asia survey is not 33%
Marcos spokesman Vic Rodriguez wrongly used a percentage in describing the lead of presidential bet Ferdinand Marcos Jr. over Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo in the latest Pulse Asia survey.
Marcos got 56% support in the April 16-21 survey, while Robredo obtained 23%. Rodriguez got the simple difference and titled his press statement “On the 33% lead in the latest Pulse Asia survey a week before elections.”
This is inaccurate. The difference between two percentages is expressed in terms of percentage points (see this guide). This is cumbersome but accurate. So in the latest Pulse survey, Marcos had a 33-percentage point or 33-point lead over Robredo.
Expressing the 33-point lead as “33%” understates the survey lead – Marcos’s lead is actually more than double Robredo’s support.
There is a lot of ground to cover in terms of survey literacy. But the most important one is to treat surveys as a guide and not necessarily an accurate or fool-proof predictor of election results.
Surveys are only a snapshot of people’s preferences over the period it was conducted, and a lot can still happen between now and election day.
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