The Department of Health (DOH) said that the country’s active Covid-19 infections may rise up to 52,000 by December 15 if mobility will further increase as well as people violating health protocols and slower interval between case detection and isolation.

“Kung ang ating pagiging mas mobile ay sasabayan ng pagbaba ng ating adherence to minimum public health standards at mabagal na naman ang paghahanap at isolate ng kaso, posibleng umakyat ang active cases natin to 49 to 52,000 as of December 15,” Dr. Alethea De Guzman, OIC-Director of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau, said during an online media forum.

De Guzman explained that if the existing mobility level and the interval between detection to isolation is followed, as well as the public following the health protocols, the country may experience only around 2,100 active infections by December 15. 

 The said projections came from the DOH’s FASSSTER team, the group that implements Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance Using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler For Early Detection of Diseases.

The group projected that Metro Manila may experience up to 3,535 infections by the middle of December if increased mobility, decreased adherence to health protocols, and slower interval between case detection and isolation will happen. 

However, De Guzman also pointed out that if the existing situation in Metro Manila continues, the region may only report 1,035 active cases by December. Ronald Espartinez