Joe Biden’s leadership will be put to test by Myanmar’s generals who grabbed power on Feb. 1, placing the poor Southeast Asian country under emergency rule for one year, detaining Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of her National League for Democracy (NLD) who won the November elections overwhelmingly.
Washington’s reaction to the unfolding drama in Myanmar, which has experimented with a little democratic space for almost a decade, was predictable.
Biden told the generals to hand back power to the democratically elected civilian leaders and free Suu Kyi and the NLD leaders. He warned of sanctions.
The last time an American president, also a Democrat, used political and economic pressures in 2014 to force Thai generals to back down and hand back state power to elected civilian leaders, the sanctions did not work.
Washington saw its influence diminished and its chief rival in the region, China, gained more allies, expanding its sphere of influence in its own backyard.
After the United States suspended military assistance to Thailand, Bangkok turned to China, buying three diesel-electric submarines, tanks and armored vehicles. Plans were made to let China to build an arms factory in Thailand. Both armies and air forces have started annual drills.
Before the pandemic, Thailand has also emerged as the biggest winner in the deepening trade war between China and the United States, according to Standard Chartered Bank, as the Thai baht strengthened against the US dollar by 6 percent.
Myanmar might fall into the welcome arms of China if Biden makes good his threats to slap sanctions against the generals led by Min Aung Hlaing, who made his homework before launching a sudden morning raid to capture the civilian leaders.
Three weeks before the coup, the general met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, complaining to the top Chinese diplomat about the results of the November balloting, and accusing the NLD of rigging the elections.
There were speculations Myanmar’s generals had sought assurances from China of support in case the United States and its Western European allies took actions against their move to claw back to power.
The military controlled Myanmar for nearly half a century.
In 1962, General Ne Win seized power to protect the integrity of Myanmar, which appeared to be falling apart under a democratic socialist government after its independence from the United Kingdom in 1948.
The generals feared a situation similar to Laos and Vietnam could happen if it allowed ethnic states like Shan and Kayah in the eastern part of the country to break from the union and form an independent territory.
After nearly three decades, Ne Win resigned in1988 when students demonstrated and demanded multi-party elections under a democratic government.
But the uprising was put down when the military again seized power and created the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). It ruled until 2011 when the generals struck a deal with Suu Kyi, who was detained for 21 years, to share power.
The experiment was welcomed by the West, which poured investments and development assistance. The generals allowed free elections in 2015, which Suu Kyi’s NLD dominated. In November, the NLD’s influence expanded, winning more seats against a political party supported by the generals.
Refusing to accept the election results, the generals seized power. This was the first time the generals rejected the results of the elections won by the NLD. In 1990, the generals did not allow the NLD to take power and continued to rule the country, throwing Suu Kyi to jail even before the elections.
China has been playing its cards well, refusing to condemn the coup and joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in expressing deep concern over the situation in Myanmar.
China, obviously, wanted to distance itself from the coup as Beijing would become the biggest beneficiary in the ongoing drama between the West and Myanmar.
Although many nationalists in Myanmar fear both American and Chinese influence, they certainly welcome Chinese investments in infrastructure and energy projects under Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
China is one of Myanmar’s biggest sources of foreign investments, which stood at $8 billion, and bilateral trade, worth $1.4 billion. But, more than economic relations, the Southeast Asian country’s strategic location could boost China’s two-ocean strategy — giving it access to both the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
China has proposed to build an oil pipeline from its Yunnan province to Myanmar’s coast in the Bay of Bengal to bypass the congested Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea when importing oil from the Middle East.
It could secure a military base in Myanmar similar to what it had done in Pakistan as well as in Sri Lanka, challenging India’s supremacy in the Indian Ocean.
China’s influence in Southeast Asia has been expanding as allies and partners doubt the United States’ commitments to the region when it did not stop China from building artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Washington feared it could be dragged into a conflict between China and the Philippines, which has a military alliance with the United States.
It was only under a Republican administration when Washington changed its policy and fully supported its long-time ally and former colony in the maritime dispute with China.
Biden promised to keep Donald Trump’s policy towards China and the South China Sea, sending strong signals by appointing foreign policy and security officials who view China as a threat more than a partner.
But before Trump’s strong anti-China policy, Beijing has also ensnared most of the Southeast Asian states through its soft power. Cambodia and Laos were too dependent on Chinese investments, trade and development assistance. China has also taken advantage of Brunei’s drying energy resources, its main source of wealth. Before Najib Razak lost his power in Malaysia, China’s influence was also strong. The latest is Rodrigo Duterte, who has shown great faith in China’s Xi Jinping, attempting to cut off Manila’s military ties with Washington by abrogating a military-to-military agreement in 2020.
The United States may also lose Myanmar if Biden pushes the generals to the wall. China will welcome them with open arms.
China is one of Myanmar’s biggest sources of foreign investments, which stood at $8 billion, and bilateral trade, worth $1.4 billion. But, more than economic relations, the Southeast Asian country’s strategic location could boost China’s two-ocean strategy — giving it access to both the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.
China has proposed to build an oil pipeline from its Yunnan province to Myanmar’s coast in the Bay of Bengal to bypass the congested Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea when importing oil from the Middle East.
It could secure a military base in Myanmar similar to what it had done in Pakistan as well as in Sri Lanka, challenging India’s supremacy in the Indian Ocean.
China’s influence in Southeast Asia has been expanding as allies and partners doubt the United States’ commitments to the region when it did not stop China from building artificial islands in the South China Sea.
Washington feared it could be dragged into a conflict between China and the Philippines, which has a military alliance with the United States.
It was only under a Republican administration when Washington changed its policy and fully supported its long-time ally and former colony in the maritime dispute with China.
Biden promised to keep Donald Trump’s policy towards China and the South China Sea, sending strong signals by appointing foreign policy and security officials who view China as a threat more than a partner.
But before Trump’s strong anti-China policy, Beijing has also ensnared most of the Southeast Asian states through its soft power. Cambodia and Laos were too dependent on Chinese investments, trade and development assistance. China has also taken advantage of Brunei’s drying energy resources, its main source of wealth. Before Najib Razak lost his power in Malaysia, China’s influence was also strong. The latest is Rodrigo Duterte, who has shown great faith in China’s Xi Jinping, attempting to cut off Manila’s military ties with Washington by abrogating a military-to-military agreement in 2020.
The United States may also lose Myanmar if Biden pushes the generals to the wall. China will welcome them with open arms.