MANUEL “MANNY” P. MOGATO is Editor-at-Large and opinion writer, writing under the column “In the Trenches.” As Reuters Manila correspondent, he and two other colleagues won the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting in 2018 for their coverage of the Duterte administration’s war on drugs.
Nine months after Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, Kyiv signed an agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), acceding to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) to shore up international support to isolate Moscow.
Kyiv needed to secure a dialogue partner status with Asean as a public relations stunt to raise its stature in the international community, and not to promote real economic and development relations with Southeast Asian states.
Once it secures a dialogue partner status, Kyiv could use it to attack Russia, destroy its relations with Asean, and seek military and humanitarian assistance in its war efforts.
In June 2024, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended a security conference in Singapore to cement political, economic, and diplomatic relations with Asean states.
Zelenskyy needed all the support to stop Russia and end the conflict, which has taken a heavy toll on Ukraine’s economy.
The conflict has also affected global food and fuel supply as both countries were the major sources of wheat and seed oils, and energy resources.
However, Asean appeared lukewarm to Zelenskyy’s overtures. Asean foreign ministers had called for restraint and an immediate ceasefire, but declined to assign any blame for the conflict.
Individual Asean states have had mixed responses to the conflict. Most were neutral on the issue. Only tiny Singapore consistently condemned Russia and even supported economic and political sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies.
Asean’s disunity in the Russia-Ukraine conflict was demonstrated in the United Nations resolutions.
From 2014 to 2023, the United Nations General Assembly passed 11 resolutions but Asean did not speak in one voice.
Brunei and Vietnam abstained from voting on the resolutions. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand also abstained, shifting from initially supporting to condemning Russia.
Singapore was the only state that consistently voted in favor of the resolutions.
Myanmar and Laos rejected the resolutions.
The Philippines has adopted a wait-and-see attitude toward Ukraine. It wanted the conflict to end first before allowing closer bilateral ties by opening a diplomatic mission.
Asean’s lukewarm response to Ukraine’s efforts to build stronger economic and political ties was not only due to the conflict but also the weakening economic conditions in Kyiv.
According to 2024 economic data, the level of trade and investments between Ukraine and Asean declined by half in comparison with previous years. Turnover dipped to $1.8 billion from $3.5 billion.
The trade volume was very low compared with other European states, like Switzerland, Norway, and Turkey.
Ukraine’s plan to raise its trade volume to $5 billion next year appeared to be unrealistic considering the unfavorable economic conditions in Kyiv.
Many political and economic analysts say Kyiv is highly unlikely to be able to contribute to any meaningful positive agenda of ASEAN activity, taking into account the economic crises in Ukraine.
Kyiv’s international reserves declined to $39.9 billion last month. Inflation accelerated to 11.2% due to power and labor shortages and drought that affected farm production.
Monetary authorities were forced to raise the interest rate to 13.5% to stabilize the foreign exchange market, keep inflation under control, and keep the economy growing.
Asean would have to think twice before moving to grant Ukraine a dialogue partner status because it has little to gain economically.
It would not be in Asean and the Philippines’s interests to grant dialogue partner status to Ukraine.
The relations between Asean and Ukraine are a one-way street favoring Kyiv.
Asean and the Philippines should wait until the conflict in Eastern Europe ends before deciding to accept Ukraine’s application for a dialogue partner status.
At this point, Kyiv might only be using Asean as leverage against Russia, shore up international support, and gain more military and humanitarian assistance support.